[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 121720
SWODY2
SPC AC 121719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN U.S. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MAKING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL EWD PROGRESS...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD
ACROSS TX...WHILE REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM AR ENEWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY REGION.  THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS. 

...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ENEWD INTO ERN TX...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/AR...NEAR AND N OF SWD-MOVING COLD
FRONT.  

WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
DESTABILIZATION...MODELS DO SUGGEST SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ADVECT NEWD WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AOB 500 J/KG
MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE BY THE AFTERNOON.  

DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- FEATURING 50 KT SWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS --
WILL YIELD SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  HOWEVER...WEAKLY-CAPPED
AIRMASS S OF FRONT -- ALONG WITH TENDENCY FOR ANY SURFACE-BASED
STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP TO MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE FRONT -- SHOULD
LIMIT MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO HAIL WITH ELEVATED STORMS N OF BOUNDARY.
 ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADO
WITH A SURFACE-BASED STORM OR TWO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE
FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAILSTONES SUPPORTS
THE CONTINUANCE OF 5% PROBABILITY SEVERE AREA THIS PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 01/12/2007