[SWODY2] SWODY2
Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2
swody2 at goshenarc.org
Fri Jan 12 17:17:32 UTC 2007
ACUS02 KWNS 121720
SWODY2
SPC AC 121719
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WRN U.S. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MAKING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL EWD PROGRESS...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD
ACROSS TX...WHILE REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM AR ENEWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY REGION. THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS.
...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ENEWD INTO ERN TX...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/AR...NEAR AND N OF SWD-MOVING COLD
FRONT.
WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
DESTABILIZATION...MODELS DO SUGGEST SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ADVECT NEWD WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AOB 500 J/KG
MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE BY THE AFTERNOON.
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- FEATURING 50 KT SWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS --
WILL YIELD SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...WEAKLY-CAPPED
AIRMASS S OF FRONT -- ALONG WITH TENDENCY FOR ANY SURFACE-BASED
STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP TO MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE FRONT -- SHOULD
LIMIT MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO HAIL WITH ELEVATED STORMS N OF BOUNDARY.
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADO
WITH A SURFACE-BASED STORM OR TWO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE
FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAILSTONES SUPPORTS
THE CONTINUANCE OF 5% PROBABILITY SEVERE AREA THIS PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 01/12/2007
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