[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 131107
SWODY2
SPC AC 131106

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH NOW FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND EJECT NEWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD. AS
THIS OCCURS A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO CONTINUE
SEWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF S TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. 

...S TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PERSIST
IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF S AND ERN TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY
MARGINAL WITH MUCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL JET INITIALLY OVER
SRN AND ERN TX EARLY SUNDAY WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT ALONG TRACK  OF
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON COLD...STABLE SIDE OF
FRONT...SUGGESTING CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE WEAK. 

POST FRONTAL ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY FROM S
CNTRL TX NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
EWD DURING THE DAY. MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO NEAR OR
BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT DUE TO UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND
WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT IN WARM SECTOR. DESPITE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS
FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
ALONG TRACK OF LOW LEVEL JET...SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO AN ANTICIPATED VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY
BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 01/13/2007