[SWODY2] {Spam?} SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 260542
SWODY2
SPC AC 260541

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST SAT MAR 25 2006

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FCST THROUGH
DAY-2...FEATURING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS
NV...SERN ORE...AND SWRN ID.  THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO MOVE EWD FROM
NRN PLAINS ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND OVER WI BY 28/12Z.  ASSOCIATED
SFC CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEARLY COLLOCATED BY 28/00Z-28/12Z TIME FRAME.
 SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS MO...SEWD ACROSS OK AND
PORTIONS AR...AND SWD ACROSS RED RIVER REGION TOWARD PORTIONS
N-CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL TX.

...CENTRAL/S TX...
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING INVOF SFC COLD FRONT...AND PERHAPS ALONG
DEVELOPING SW TX DRYLINE AND/OR HIGHER TERRAIN OF COAHUILA.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND N OF SFC FRONT AFTER
DARK...AMIDST STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WAA REGIME.

CONTINENTAL/POLAR TRAJECTORIES NOW CROSSING PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL
GULF ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NWWD ACROSS REGION IN INCOMPLETELY
MODIFIED FORM...WITH MAINLY 50S F SFC DEW POINTS AND A FEW LOW 60S
POSSIBLE OVER S TX.  DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE LIMITED BY DENSE
STRATOCUMULUS COVER WITHIN RETURN FLOW REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...THOUGH AFTERNOON BREAKS INVOF FRONTAL ZONE MAY HELP TO BOOST
MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG.  WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW DURING DAY WILL
LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE...THOUGH STRONG DIRECTIONAL VEERING AND 30-40
KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO BECOME
ORGANIZED WITH HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.  AFTER
DARK...ACTIVITY ALONG AND N OF FRONT SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE...IN ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OVER
CENTRAL/NRN TX.  WHILE THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE HAIL...MAIN
THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL PER LATEST HPC QPF DISCUSSION.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX BEFORE 28/00Z...PRIND THIS
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED DIURNALLY BY STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
GENERATED DURING PRECEDING DAYS OF WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  ISOLATED
TSTMS MAY MOVE EWD ACROSS RIO GRANDE FROM OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED
ASCENT ZONE IN SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE.

..EDWARDS.. 03/26/2006