[SWODY2] {Spam?} SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 250543
SWODY2
SPC AC 250541

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST FRI MAR 24 2006

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN ACROSS CONUS WILL FEATURE STRONG
TROUGH NOW EXHIBITING UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER INVOF
41N134W...BASED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY.  PERTURBATION IS FCST
TO MOVE ACROSS COASTAL CA/ORE AND GREAT BASIN DAY-1...THEN FROM
CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.  MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREFX MEMBERS FCST CLOSED
MIDLEVEL LOW BETWEEN JMS-OFK BY 27/12Z...ABOUT 100 NM W OF RELATED
SFC CYCLONE.  SFC COLD FRONT WILL REFORM WITHIN LEE TROUGHING AREA
JUST E OF ROCKIES EARLY IN PERIOD...THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 27/12Z.  LARGE SCALE FORCING...IN FORM
OF STRONG DPVA OVER NRN ROCKIES AND STRONG WAA OVER E-CENTRAL PLAINS
AND LOWER MO VALLEY REGION...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TWO MARGINAL GEN
THUNDER OUTLOOKS.

...N-CENTRAL ROCKIES...
ALTHOUGH LIMITED LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESTRICT
BUOYANCY...PRIND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING/LIFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OCCASIONAL SHORT-LIVED TSTMS. 
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BASED WELL ABOVE SFC IN REGIME OF STRONGEST
THERMAL COOLING ALOFT...WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY AOB 200 J/KG.

...E-CENTRAL PLAINS...OZARKS TO SRN IA...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 27/06Z
AMIDST STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE
EMANATING FROM RETURN FLOW TRAJECTORIES THAT HAVE BEEN ONLY WEAKLY
MODIFIED FROM THEIR CONTINENTAL/POLAR ORIGINS. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM
OPERATIONAL ETA...ETA-KF...AND NAM A.K.A. WRF...EACH INDICATE
SUFFICIENT UVV/MOISTENING TO SATURATE PORTIONS 700-850 MB LAYER
ABOVE STRONGEST CINH.  PRIND PARCELS WILL BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED
TO LFC W OF 45-55 KT SWLY LLJ THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM N-CENTRAL TX
TO E-CENTRAL MO BY 12Z.  SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATLY INHIBITED
BY LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES LIKELY TO
REMAIN UNDER 300 J/KG IN MOST AREAS.

..EDWARDS.. 03/25/2006