[SWODY2] {Spam?} SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 241727
SWODY2
SPC AC 241726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST FRI MAR 24 2006

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

BLOCKING IN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTS.  BUT...MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT AS A STRONG
UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC...REGIME MAY BECOME AT
LEAST A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN SPLIT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS INCLUDES A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO DIG WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS LATER
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORCING ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST.

THE LEAD IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN...AND ROTATING
AROUND...THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROADER SCALE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
CIRCULATION.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO BECOME DETACHED FROM THE
CIRCULATION BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING INLAND ACROSS
OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...BY 12Z
SUNDAY.

FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN CONFLUENT EAST OF THE
ROCKIES INTO BROADER SCALE TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH OF OHIO VALLEY
CLOSED LOW.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE RIDGING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE/ AND THE
CARIBBEAN.

...WESTERN STATES...
MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY.  THIS WILL INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER A FAIRLY BROAD AREA WEST OF THE
ROCKIES.  

COLD CORE OF SYSTEM /500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -30C/ IS PROGGED TO
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN CASCADES/NORTHERN SIERRA AND SACRAMENTO
VALLEY DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.  THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MORE MOIST
SACRAMENTO VALLEY...WHERE OROGRAPHY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT.  BENEATH STRONG
CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW...THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RISK OF A TORNADO OR PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY...WHICH COULD LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF SURFACE HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...FORCING/SHEAR SEEM LIKELY TO INCREASE
ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO THROUGH
CENTRAL NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE LINE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS...EVEN
IN ABSENCE OF MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN BEFORE DIMINISHING
SATURDAY EVENING.

..KERR.. 03/24/2006