[SWODY2] {Spam?} SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 240553
SWODY2
SPC AC 240552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST THU MAR 23 2006

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING OVER ERN AND WRN
CONUS...WITH MEAN RIDGE FROM SRN ROCKIES NWD ACROSS CANADIAN
PRAIRIES.  UPPER LOW NOW OVER ERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO 
PIVOT SEWD THEN EWD OFFSHORE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN
PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY AROUND 45N148W -- IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH BASE OF
NERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW...AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY...THEN MOVE ASHORE CA
COAST AROUND 25/18Z.

ALTHOUGH MINOR DISCREPANCIES EXIST WITH TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF PACIFIC
TROUGH...GENERAL SCENARIO IS STRONGLY AGREED UPON BY LATEST
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREFX MEMBERS.  THIS TROUGH THEN SHOULD MOVE
EWD ACROSS SIERRA NV RANGE AND WRN GREAT BASIN...REACHING LONGITUDE
OF UT AND WRN MT BY END OF PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS GREAT BASIN THROUGH
PERIOD...PROVIDING PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG-SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL.

...GREAT BASIN...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG BAROCLINICALLY FORCED
BAND...AMIDST STRONG SFC-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT EWD TO NEWD ACROSS REGION...WITH GREATEST
INTENSITY/COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. 
SOME TSTMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND. 
AFTERNOON HEATING...AT LEAST MRGL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND
FAVORABLY STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD DESTABILIZE AIR
MASS OVER ERN NV AND WRN UT...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS SRN ID.  CLOUD
COVER MAY LIMIT HEATING IN SOME AREAS...HOWEVER WEAK CINH...FRONTAL
FORCING AND LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.  MEANWHILE...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH APCHS...TIGHTENING HEIGHT/PRESSURE
GRADIENTS THROUGH MUCH OF TROPOSPHERE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER DARK AS SFC HEATING AND RELATED BUOYANCY DIMINISH...AND MAIN
BAND OF FORCING MOVES INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN UT/SERN ID.

..EDWARDS.. 03/24/2006