[SWODY2] {Spam?} SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 211712
SWODY2
SPC AC 211710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST TUE MAR 21 2006

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HIGHER LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  BUT...IT APPEARS THE LAST IN
A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ASSOCIATED WITH A BELT
OF POLAR WESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...WILL GRADUALLY
PROGRESS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU.  

PROGGED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...THIS FEATURE
IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.  EVENTUALLY
THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME SHEARED AND ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY EASTWARD
AS IT CONTINUES INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME. 
THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THURSDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF A PRIOR IMPULSE...A COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL HAVE DRIED/STABILIZED MOST AREAS...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SURFACE
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR EVEN A WEAK RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE ABOVE THIS STABLE LAYER
LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY RISK FOR VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
MODELS DO SUGGEST A ZONE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION
AND MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM WILL
OVERSPREAD PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF SOUTHERN
BRANCH TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BUT
DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL INHIBITION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH CAPE COULD DEVELOP IN MOIST
LAYER BASED AROUND 700 MB...THROUGH FAVORABLE MIXED PHASE LAYER...
FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 03/21/2006