[SWODY2] {Spam?} SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 191735
SWODY2
SPC AC 191734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS INTO A
LARGE PART OF THE DEEP S...

...SYNOPSIS...
A TREND TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE EARLY
THIS WEEK.  SRN PARTS OF THE WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
SWING EWD TODAY AS THE NEXT IMPULSE DROPS TOWARD THE NRN CA COAST
TONIGHT.  THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED EARLY
MON...THEN CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW BEFORE ELONGATING E-W ACROSS THE
MID-MS VLY ON TUE.

PRIMARY SFC LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER NW TX TONIGHT...THEN TRACK
NEWD INTO THE TN VLY BY 12Z TUE.  A WARM FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NWD
THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY AND DEEP S WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE LWR MS VLY LATE MON NIGHT.

...CNTRL-SERN TX ACROSS THE DEEP S...
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY MON
WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN VLY.  THOUGH THIS MAY IMPEDE NWD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT...GIVEN TRACK OF THE 150 METER/12 HR H5 HEIGHT
FALLS...WARM FRONT MAY REDEVELOP AS FAR N AS NRN LA...CNTRL MS AND
WCNTRL-SRN AL BY MID-LATE MON AFTN.

PRIND THAT THE STRONGEST MCS WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z MON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX.  DOWNSTREAM...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE THROUGH MON AFTN.  UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON
HOW WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST LOCAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF
MODEST INSTABILITY.  AS A RESULT...TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY MON AFTN...THEN SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE DEEP
S/TN VLY THROUGH MON NIGHT.

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY AS THE STORMS TRACK
VCNTY THE WARM FRONT AND SUB-SYNOPTIC LOWS EARLY IN STORM LIFE
CYCLES.  ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH TIME WITH
LEWPS/BOWS.  SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT
OVERNIGHT MON AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER THE COLD WEDGE ACROSS NERN
AL...NRN GA AND THE CAROLINAS.

IF PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR APPEARS TO BE MORE UNSTABLE IN FUTURE
OUTLOOKS...AN UPGRADE TO MDT RISK IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY
INTO CNTRL/SRN MS.

...SRN PLAINS...
A SECONDARY AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING MON
AFTN ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF SRN OK INTO NERN TX.  ANY
CLEARING IN WAKE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT GIVEN DECREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLE ISOLD
TORNADOES.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS AR AND INTO THE TN
VLY OVERNIGHT.

..RACY.. 03/19/2006