[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 190601
SWODY2
SPC AC 190600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN TX INTO PARTS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH
MONDAY AND DE AMPLIFY BY LATE MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ERN TX EARLY MONDAY AND
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. INITIAL SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO OCCLUDE OVER ERN OK WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED FARTHER SE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...RESULTING IN NWD ADVANCE OF BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE
NRN GULF. THE WARM SECTOR MAY SPREAD INLAND INTO MUCH OF LA...CNTRL
MS AND AL MONDAY AFTERNOON.


...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH PARTS OF THE SERN STATES...

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT N OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF AR...CNTRL AND NRN MS INTO
THE TN VALLEY. THIS MAY SERVE TO SLOW THE NWD RETREAT OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY
LIFT AS FAR N AS NRN LA...CNTRL MS AND AL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED
JET EXIT REGION WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY
MONDAY. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN VEERING THIS FEATURE
TO WSWLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH...IF OCCURS...COULD SERVE AS A
LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...THE NAM MAINTAINS A MORE SLY COMPONENT.
IN EITHER CASE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR CLOUDS AND PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EARLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS COULD
LIMIT INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS...SOME DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED
AS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INLAND AND WHERE POCKETS OF
HEATING CAN DEVELOP. STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ADVANCE EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION FARTHER W IN VICINITY OF
FRONT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ONCE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE. STRONGEST WARM SECTOR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD
THROUGH PARTS OF MS AND AL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND
INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE MARGINAL TOWARD GA AND SC.

..DIAL.. 03/19/2006