[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 181731
SWODY2
SPC AC 181730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
LWR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD ON
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS SERN CANADA ELONGATES E-W AND THE
TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS BEGINS TO DIG SEWD.  WHILE LOW-AMPLITUDE
IMPULSES WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING
SUNDAY...THE PRIMARY TROUGH WILL WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MON TO BODILY TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. 

AT THE SFC...PRIMARY FRONT SITUATED FROM THE NRN GULF BASIN WWD
ACROSS CNTRL TX AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY WILL REDEVELOP NWD
INTO THE LWR MS VLY...NRN TX AND THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY
EVENING.  LEE-LOWS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NERN NM AND ACROSS SWRN TX
EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A DRY LINE MIXING EWD INTO THE TX SPLAINS AND
WCNTRL TX LATE SUNDAY AFTN.  EVENTUALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE
THE DRY LINE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN OK AND CNTRL TX BY 12Z MON.

...SRN PLAINS TO THE LWR MS VLY...
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTS
NWWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
TODAY AND SUNDAY.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION SUNDAY
AFTN FROM PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL TX NWD INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS. 
POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING TSTM CLUSTERS AND CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY IMPEDE
NWD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.  BUT...SLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A CONTINUED RISK OF
LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS N TX AND SWRN OK.

ELEVATED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS OK/N TX AT
12Z SUNDAY ALONG NOSE OF A SLY LLJ.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD
THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...THE WARM SECTOR
SHOULD GROW SPATIALLY DURING SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS CNTRL/W TX. 
STRONGEST HEATING SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM THE TX SPLAINS SWD INTO
SWRN TX.  WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...INFLOW OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE/HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TSTM
INITIATION DURING THE AFTN.  SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES WILL EXIST
ACROSS THESE AREAS AND LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER/ WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH ISOLD TORNADOES MAY
OCCUR.

AS FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS EWD OVERNIGHT...TSTMS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX.  ALONG WITH A HAIL THREAT...DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE THREATS SUNDAY NIGHT AS FAR EAST
AS THE LWR MS VLY AS THE LLJ QUICKLY DEVELOPS EWD.

A SECONDARY AREA OF POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE NRN
EDGE OF THE MCS ACROSS THE TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE ORIENTED WITHIN PARALLEL DEEP SLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PRIMARY THROUGH.  THUS...STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
A LEWPY STRUCTURE AND PRIMARY REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT.

..RACY.. 03/18/2006