[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 200555
SWODY2
SPC AC 200555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN GA INTO THE NRN HALF
OF THE FL PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL CONTINUE EWD
AND DEAMPLIFY OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
BLOCK SITUATED OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE TN VALLEY...WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


...SRN GA THROUGH THE NRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA...

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER TO WLY OVER THE SERN U.S. AND THE NERN
GULF LATE MONDAY AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE EWD ADVECTION OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS HEATING COMMENCES. STRONGEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD ADVANCING MID LEVEL JET
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL N OF THIS REGION...AND THIS COULD SERVE
TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION COULD SERVE TO
INITIATE NEW STORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. STRONG MID
LEVEL FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

..DIAL.. 03/20/2006