[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 180603
SWODY2
SPC AC 180602

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2006

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER CNTRL CA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD THROUGH
THE SWRN U.S. AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL
WILL ALSO EXIST FOR MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM TO
EJECT NEWD INTO TX SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. MODELS
AGREE THAT A STRONG SPEED MAX WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH WRN TX SUNDAY
NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A PACIFIC FRONT. A SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
ACROSS S TX WILL PERSIST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE AND WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THE DAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD EXTEND FROM LA NWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND NWRN TX WHERE IT WILL
INTERSECT WITH THE DRYLINE.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TX AND SRN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...


GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND
LEE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A SLY LOW
LEVEL COMPONENT THROUGH SUNDAY. GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S RESIDING S OF FRONT OVER S TX WILL ADVECT NWWD
UNDERNEATH PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO
DESTABILIZATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL TX NWD INTO
PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT POTENTIAL
FOR EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS COULD HAVE A DAMPENING EFFECT ON HEATING.
ELY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST N OF THE SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS NRN TX INTO OK. HOWEVER...SLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE
LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY
FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. 

ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FROM NRN TX INTO OK SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING
THE DAY. AS THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES AND CAP WEAKENS...OTHER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER W OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN TX/ERN
NM AND IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ANY SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND WRN TX AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES
WITHIN EXIT REGION OF EJECTING SPEED MAX. OTHER STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AS THE PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE ACROSS WRN
TX...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS IT SPREADS
EWD THROUGH TX OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR INCREASES.

..DIAL.. 03/18/2006