[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 151727
SWODY2
SPC AC 151726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN LA INTO SCNTRL TX...

...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE SRN PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY2
PERIOD AS STRONG SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS MO INTO NC.  THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SWD PLUNGE OF CT AIR THROUGH THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY FORCING SFC BOUNDARY DEEP INTO TX/LA BY PEAK
HEATING.  IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR DEEP ASCENT
ALONG THIS ADVANCING COLD FRONT...IT APPEARS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX INTO SWRN PORTIONS OF LA
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS WILL BECOME WEAKLY
INHIBITED AFTER 21Z AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND SFC
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80 DEG.  IT APPEARS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHILE VEERING
PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WITH MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.

LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU INTO WEST TX WILL AID ELEVATED CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR PARCELS
LIFTED NEAR 800 MB.  MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS/DEVELOPS NWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.

...OH VALLEY...

PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...NORTH
OF STRONG SPEED MAX...AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THURSDAY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN WARM ADVECTION
ZONE JUST EAST OF ADVANCING SFC LOW...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS.

...PACIFIC NW...

YET ANOTHER SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE BUOYANT MARITIME AIRMASS
BENEATH COLD UPPER TROUGH.  ISOLATED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
SUSTAINED SECONDARY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST.

..DARROW.. 03/15/2006