[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 140547
SWODY2
SPC AC 140546

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  DOWNSTREAM BROADER SCALE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES WILL REMAIN BROADLY CONFLUENT IN THE WAKE OF
A DEEP CANADIAN MARITIMES CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED WESTERN ATLANTIC
TROUGH.  HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL IMPULSE... NOW PROGRESSING INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG AS
IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY.  THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING
IMPULSE IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...WHICH IS FORECAST TO TOP CREST
OF MID/UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY POLAR SHORT
WAVE IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  HOWEVER...IN WAKE OF PRIOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

SURFACE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE/RETREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
BUT...A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ABOVE RESIDUAL
COLD/STABLE SURFACE LAYER...INTO EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS SHOULD BE CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD BY A RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BENEATH
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
BROAD LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THEN...MOST LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHEARING SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE ABOVE THIS REGIME COULD SUPPRESS
INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  IF THIS
OCCURS...IT NOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD UPPER TROUGH MAY
APPROACH SHORE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT
DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP INLAND BEYOND
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

..KERR.. 03/14/2006