[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 141719
SWODY2
SPC AC 141718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CST TUE MAR 14 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...EAST TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS CA UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT WITHIN WLY FLOW
REGIME OVER THE PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE WILL AID
RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION WHERE GRADUAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ALONG ERN FRINGE OF STEEP LAPSE RATE
PLUME OFF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
BUOYANCY IF PARCELS ARE LIFTED NEAR 850 MB...MUCAPE ROUGHLY ON THE
ORDER OF 500 J/KG.  ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE LATE IN
THE PERIOD FROM EAST TX INTO AR AND LA AS SUSTAINED...INCREASINGLY
MOIST...SWLY TRAJECTORY ENHANCES ASCENT ATOP COOLER LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS.

...PACIFIC NW...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST WEDNESDAY.  VERY
COLD...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...SUGGESTS CONVECTION IS
LIKELY...BUT LIGHTNING SHOULD BE LIMITED EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE MARINE
LAYER DUE TO MEAGER INSTABILITY INLAND.

..DARROW.. 03/14/2006