[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 131724
SWODY2
SPC AC 131723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN U.S./MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL HAVE FORCED SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY1 PERIOD WITH SFC
WIND SHIFT LIKELY NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST BY 12Z TUE MORNING.  GIVEN
THE LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR OBSERVED
 ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...IT APPEARS THE MITIGATING FACTOR FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BEFORE WLY FLOW
DEEPENS AND FOCUSED CONVERGENCE SHIFTS OFFSHORE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD SUGGEST PARCELS FEEDING
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...ROOTED AROUND 950MB
AND DRIVEN PARTLY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.  MUCAPE WILL LIKELY HOLD
AOB 500J/KG LIMITING HAIL THREAT...WHILE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PARCELS
SUGGEST LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE.

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA...

NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN SHIFT INLAND AS SPEED MAX EJECTS
EAST ACROSS CNTRL CA INTO NV BY 00Z/15TH.  NORTH OF THIS JET
AXIS...VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS...H5 THERMAL TROUGH TO MINUS
32C...WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND AID CONVECTIVE THERMALS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL CA...ESPECIALLY IF PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS. 
COLD...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS HAIL WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS
BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING
LARGER THAN MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 03/13/2006