[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 061729
SWODY2
SPC AC 061728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST MON MAR 06 2006

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS AND
NRN/W CNTRL OK...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MID-MS VLY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE CNTRL CA ATTM IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GRT BASIN TODAY...THEN REACH THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS BY TUE AFTN.  A LEE LOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL KS BY TUE AFTN WITH A DRYLINE SWD THROUGH
SCNTRL KS...WRN OK AND WCNTRL TX.  

INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVECT A
NARROW RIBBON OF MSTR /SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES F/ INTO
PARTS OF CNTRL OK/KS JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE BY TUE AFTN. 
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN COOL...AOB MINUS 15 DEGREES
C.  PRIND THAT WHILE THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION ARCING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...SUFFICIENT
CLEARING/INSOLATION WILL BE PRESENT BY MID-AFTN ACROSS WCNTRL OK NWD
INTO CNTRL KS FOR MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. 

AS TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES ACROSS THE DRYLINE AND
HEATING WEAKENS CINH...TSTM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR FROM SCNTRL
KS-WCNTRL OK BY LATE TUE AFTN. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY GIVEN
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR.  AN ISOLD TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. TSTMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND
PROBABLY WEAKEN OVER CNTRL OK. HOWEVER...INCREASING SLY LLJ OF
60-70 KTS WILL FAVOR A NOCTURNAL MCS OR TWO ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
MID-MS VLY THROUGH EARLY WED.  ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

..RACY.. 03/06/2006