[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 060903
SWODY2
SPC AC 060902

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CST MON MAR 06 2006

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AMENDED TO ADD THUNDER/SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS OK/WRN N TX

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE ERN
CONUS THIS PERIOD...AS WRN TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF SEVERAL
SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES -- LIKEWISE PROGRESSES EWD.  ONE PIECE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD FROM CO/WY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS INTO WRN ONTARIO/THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  MEANWHILE...A SECOND
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- INITIALLY ALONG THE W COAST -- WILL BECOME THE
PREDOMINANT FEATURE AS IT MOVES EWD/SEWD WITH TIME.  BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE SWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE SSWWD ACROSS NRN BAJA
CA.

AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN
HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO KS/OK BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. 

THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR WEST...MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE S CENTRAL CONUS WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

...CENTRAL AND WRN OK/WRN N TX...
DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO MIX EWD ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON...INTO A MOIST/POTENTIALLY-UNSTABLE BUT CAPPED AIRMASS. 
HOWEVER...AS RIDGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EWD AND HEIGHTS
FALL IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE
NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
DRYLINE WHERE CAP BECOMES LOCALLY BREACHED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

WITH VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS
REGION...ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WOULD BECOME SUPERCELLS. 
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. 

...MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY...
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR THIS PERIOD WITHIN ZONE OF
STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT EWD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MO/MS VALLEYS.  

ATTM...MODELS SUGGEST THAT 500 TO 1500 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD
EVOLVE WITH TIME ACROSS MUCH OF MO/IA/IL AND VICINITY...AIDED BY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH 50 TO
60 KT SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION
APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. 
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION
-- MAINLY FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 03/06/2006