[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 070757
SWODY2
SPC AC 070755

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 AM CST TUE MAR 07 2006

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE SWRN U.S./SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS
THIS PERIOD...AS WELL AS WITH THEIR POSITION OF THE DRYLINE.  

OVERALL HOWEVER...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  BROAD SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST OVER KS/OK BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS ERN KS/NRN
MO AND INTO IL...AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS OK/WRN N TX.  AS
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS...BOTH THE WARM FRONT AND THE DRYLINE SHOULD
BECOME A FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

...SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY...
SEASONABLY-MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S/ WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS/OZARKS REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW.  THOUGH ENEWD ADVECTION OF EML SHOULD RESULT IN A
CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING AND
INCREASING UVV AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SRN KS SWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL OK INTO
N TX AHEAD OF DRYLINE. STORMS SHOULD ALSO REDEVELOP/INCREASE INVOF
WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN KS/MO BY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.

VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. 
EXPECT INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE TO BE
ISOLATED...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS LIKELY ALONG WARM FRONT
ACROSS ERN KS/MO.  ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND AT LEAST A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST.

STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE SHOULD
EVOLVE WITH TIME AHEAD OF DRYLINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS --
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 03/07/2006