[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 060548
SWODY2
SPC AC 060547

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST SUN MAR 05 2006

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE ERN
CONUS THIS PERIOD...AS WRN TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF SEVERAL
SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES -- LIKEWISE PROGRESSES EWD.  ONE PIECE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD FROM CO/WY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS INTO WRN ONTARIO/THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  MEANWHILE...A SECOND
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- INITIALLY ALONG THE W COAST -- WILL BECOME THE
PREDOMINANT FEATURE AS IT MOVES EWD/SEWD WITH TIME.  BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE SWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE SSWWD ACROSS NRN BAJA
CA.

AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN
HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO KS/OK BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. 

THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR WEST...MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MO
VALLEY AND VICINITY WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

...MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY...
WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...DESPITE STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION.  AS A RESULT...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD TO BE CONFINED TO ZONE OF STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT EWD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ACROSS THE MO/MS VALLEYS.  

ATTM...MODELS SUGGEST THAT 500 TO 1500 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD
EVOLVE WITH TIME ACROSS MUCH OF MO/IA/IL AND VICINITY...AIDED BY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH 50 TO
60 KT SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION
APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. 
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION
-- MAINLY FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 03/06/2006