[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 011730
SWODY2
SPC AC 011729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST WED MAR 01 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BASIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONE OVER
CANADIAN MARITIMES...MEAN RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CONUS...AND PACIFIC
TROUGH.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS NOW BREACHING MEAN RIDGE
POSITION OVER NRN PLAINS WILL ACCELERATE ESEWD FROM UPPER MS VALLEY
TO MID ATLANTIC REGION AND LOSE AMPLITUDE.  HEIGHTS WILL BUILD AGAIN
OVER CENTRAL CONUS BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND IN ADVANCE OF
HIGH-AMPLITUDE PACIFIC TROUGH. VORTICITY MAX NOW LOCATED ABOUT 550
NM W OF CAPE MENDOCINO SHOULD MOVE INLAND CENTRAL/NRN CA COAST
BETWEEN 2/12-2/18Z...BEFORE EJECTING NEWD AND LOSING AMPLITUDE OVER
ERN ORE.  FARTHER UPSTREAM...SPEED MAX NOW IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PACIFIC...AROUND 140-145W AND W OF BC/WA/ORE
COASTS.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD THEN EWD AROUND BASE
OF BROADER TROUGH...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING AND
MOVING ASHORE CA COAST AROUND END OF PERIOD.

AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW OVER NERN KS/SERN NEB/NWRN MO AREA WILL MOVE
EWD FROM OH VALLEY INTO N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...REDEVELOPING
OFFSHORE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 3/00Z.  TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
REACH FL PANHANDLE...MIDDLE TX COAST AND TX BIG BEND REGION BY END
OF PERIOD...BECOMING STATIONARY OVER SW TX IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE
FALLS IN LEE OF ROCKIES.

...WRN CONUS...
LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE -- NOW EVIDENT AS DEEP-LAYER CLOUD
BAND JUST OFFSHORE WA/ORE COASTS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF CG LIGHTNING
-- WILL MOVE INLAND AND DECELERATE ACROSS GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD DENOTE ERN EDGE OF FORCING FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION DURING
DAY-2 PERIOD AS WELL.  W OF BAROCLINIC ZONE...COMBINATION OF GRADUAL
COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVEMENT OF SYNOPTIC TROUGH TOWARD
COAST -- AND MORE CONCENTRATED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH LANDFALLING
SHORTWAVES -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING TSTM POTENTIAL INLAND. 
THIS DESTABILIZATION IS EVIDENT ATTM IN LARGE AREA OF GLACIATED
CONVECTION THAT COVERS MUCH OF NERN PACIFIC E OF SPEED MAX.  SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME TSTMS UNDER COLDEST MIDLEVEL AIR...AND
STRONG GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME TSTMS IN FRONTAL ZONE THAT ARE
EMBEDDED IN ENHANCED SWLY GRADIENT WINDS.  HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TOO ISOLATED...MARGINAL AND DISORGANIZED TO DELINEATE
PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...MID/UPPER OH VALLEY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING FIRST FEW
HOURS OF PERIOD...BEFORE MIDLEVEL TROUGH FURTHER WEAKENS AND SFC
CYCLONE SHIFTS OFFSHORE.  STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT NE-SE OF SFC
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO RAISE PARCELS TO LFC AMIDST MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...A CONTINUATION OF REGIME DISCUSSED IN DAY-1
OUTLOOK.  ELEVATED MUCAPES SHOULD REMAIN WEAK -- GENERALLY UNDER 200
J/KG IN MOST AREAS...PRECLUDING SEVERE THREAT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...SRN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY-MIDMORNING HOURS OVER PORTIONS
NERN NM AND/OR TX PANHANDLE...IN REGIME OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING BUT MARGINAL MOISTURE. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
MIDLEVEL MOISTENING TO YIELD MUCAPES UP TO NEAR 200 J/KG...HIGHLY
ELEVATED WITH BASES IN 550-650 MB LAYER.  CAPPING AND DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER THEN SHOULD PRECLUDE DIURNAL/SFC-BASED TSTMS.  AFTER
DARK...NWRN EDGE OF FAVORABLY MOISTENING RETURN FLOW AIR SHOULD BE
ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE...ACROSS
PORTIONS N-CENTRAL THROUGH NWRN AND W-CENTRAL TX.  CONVECTION IN
THIS REGIME SHOULD BE DEEPER THAN ACTIVITY FROM PREVIOUS MORNING. 
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPES TO AROUND 500-700 J/KG ROOTED NEAR
850 MB...AND POTENTIALLY 35-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  THOUGH SOME
ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE...CONCERNS OVER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 03/01/2006