[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 040556
SWODY2
SPC AC 040555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST FRI MAR 03 2006

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND N-S ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SUPERIMPOSED UPON THE
LARGE-SCALE MEAN RIDGE.  THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD WITH TIME --
LIKELY IN PIECEMEAL FASHION...WHILE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
ERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS IN ITS WAKE.  MEANWHILE...A TROUGH WILL MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS FEATURE SPREADING ACROSS THE W COAST STATES AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...WHILE SAGGING
MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS OK/AR INTO NRN TX/NRN LA THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.  

...SERN KS/ERN OK/NERN TX EWD INTO TN/NRN MS/NRN AL...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION...WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION E OF SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY.  THOUGH MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIURNALLY WEAKEN...NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITHIN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS NEAR FRONT...FROM WRN TN
ACROSS AR AND PERHAPS INTO SERN OK/NERN TX.  

GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST ACROSS S CENTRAL OK/N TX...BUT
EXPECT AIRMASS TO REMAIN GENERALLY CAPPED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE
REGION.  WITH WNWLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASING TO NEAR
40 KT AT MID-LEVELS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND ASSOCIATED LOW-END SEVERE THREAT
WOULD EXIST COULD STORMS DEVELOP WITHIN THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. 
WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM...BUT LOW PROBABILITIES
MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER UPDATES SHOULD IT BECOME MORE APPARENT THAT
CAP MAY BE LOCALLY BREACHED.

..GOSS.. 03/04/2006