[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 010559
SWODY2
SPC AC 010558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW REGIME ON THU WILL FEATURE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS AND A
RIDGE IN THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.  THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY WED WILL AMPLIFY
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE POLAR VORTEX...THEN DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE GRTLKS AND OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY MIDDAY THU.  IN ITS WAKE...A
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD INTO THE DEEP S AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

TO THE WEST...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE PAC NW COAST WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE EWD AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DROPS SWD
INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EJECTING NEWD
FROM THE ERN PAC WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE GRT BASIN AND NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

...SRN PLAINS/ROCKIES...
COLD FRONT SHOULD SETTLE INTO CNTRL TX NWWD INTO CNTRL NM THROUGH
MIDDAY THU.  ELY UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW TSTMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS NM. 
BUT...RIDGING ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAY KEEP
THE TSTM THREAT ISOLD.

A PERSISTENT CAP AND RIDGING ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT SURFACE
BASED TSTMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL TX. 
BUT...AS THE SELY LLJ ACCELERATES LATER THU NIGHT...ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANYWHERE FROM THE SRN TX PNHDL EWD
INTO N TX OR SRN OK.  ISOLD STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

...OH VLY/MID-ATLANTIC...
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH ONE OR TWO LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE ONGOING
AT 12Z THU ALONG THE NOSE OF A STRONG LLJ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH
VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS.  BUT...AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OFF
DELMARVA...MASS CONVERGENCE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND TSTM
PROBABILITIES SHOULD QUICKLY WANE WED MORNING.

...SACRAMENTO VLY CA...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCT TSTMS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL CA THU
AFTN.  COOL PROFILES COULD SUPPORT SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS.

..RACY.. 03/01/2006