[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 311728
SWODY2
SPC AC 311727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN KS...THE
TX PNHDL...WRN OK AND NWRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY SWD INTO
THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...AND EWD INTO THE MID SOUTH...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO
PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN W INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS.  DOWNSTREAM TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT EWD
THROUGH THE NERN STATES.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER THE NRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATING OVER ERN CO/WRN KS.  DRY LINE WILL SHARPEN THROUGH THE
DAY...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM WRN KS SWD INTO THE ERN TX PNHDL AND
W-CNTRL TX BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BAROCLINIC ZONE
INITIALLY STALLED FROM THE MID S WWD TO ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WILL RETREAT NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN
CO.  IN THE E...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SRN QUEBEC
WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY...NEW
ENGLAND AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN.


...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO MID SOUTH...

A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS FORECAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN KS...THE ERN TX
PNHDL...WRN OK AND NWRN TX.  HOWEVER...CAVEATS DO EXIST WHICH COULD
AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS E OF DRY LINE. 
THESE INCLUDE: 1) INFLUENCE OF WEAKER LEAD DISTURBANCES ON OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING CONVECTION WHICH COULD DISRUPT WARM SECTOR...2)
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND 3) QUALITY OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG AND N OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM PORTIONS OF MS/AL
WWD ACROSS AR AND OK WITHIN PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN.  SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCREASING BY AFTERNOON FROM THE MID
SOUTH INTO ERN OK AS MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. 
DESPITE SOME RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS...PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON FROM WARM FRONT/DRY LINE TRIPLE POINT SWD ALONG DRY
LINE FROM WRN KS INTO THE TX PNHDL AND WRN OK. HERE...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES
1500-2500 J/KG/.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...POSSIBLE INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS...ANY ONGOING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD
DISTURBANCES...ALONG WITH MIXING OF SHALLOW MOIST PROFILES COULD
POTENTIALLY LIMIT THIS INSTABILITY.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 21-00Z AS DRY LINE CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS AND
DEEPENS AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREAD EWD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. 
IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 23-03Z WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
REMAIN DISCRETE AND ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER OWING TO THE MARKED
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS LLJ INTENSIFIES.

TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD SATURDAY NIGHT NEWD INTO
THE MID MO VALLEY ALONG BROADENING/STRENGTHENING LLJ.  THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

...HUDSON VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH REGION.  HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...SUPPORTING A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS.  GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...SOME THREAT FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS WILL EXIST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..MEAD.. 03/31/2006