[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 291659
SWODY2
SPC AC 291658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2006

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S LCH 20 SSW BTR
15 NE PIB 10 N 0A8 25 NNE GAD 35 ENE TYS 30 WSW BLF 30 SW SHD 35 W
NHK 65 E SBY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SE US...
A BROAD CNTRL US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPACT AND DIG QUICKLY
SEWD TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES
MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS
SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY WITH THE NAM DEVELOPING A MORNING SQUALL-LINE
IN LA AND DRIVING IT EWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
GFS INITIATES CONVECTION IN SRN MS AND AL BY 21Z WITH STORMS
SPREADING EWD INTO SCNTRL GA. ATTM...AM LEANING TOWARD A COMPROMISE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING IN SRN MS WITH
CONVECTION DRIFTING EWD AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS GA AND THE
FL PANHANDLE.

A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A RAPIDLY
MOVING WELL-DEFINED 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX PUNCHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE...WINDS WILL VEER STRONGLY AS A COLD
FRONT RACES EWD WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F COMBINED WITH STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST CELLS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY
ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH COMES IN DEEPER THAN FORECAST. IF STRONG
CONVECTION INITIATES IN THE COASTAL PLAINS...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AL...GA AND
THE FL PANHANDLE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING INSTABILITY AND
INITIATION WILL NOT ISSUE A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. IF THE MODEL FORECASTS
CONTINUE TO TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT...A
SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..BROYLES.. 01/29/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM