[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 290600
SWODY2
SPC AC 290559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW HUM 30 NW GPT
0A8 25 NNE GAD 35 ENE TYS 30 WSW BLF 30 SW SHD 35 W NHK 65 E SBY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN U.S...

LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL INDUCE INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 150M IN
12HR...ACROSS THE SERN U.S. DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS STRENGTHENING
UPPER JET APPROACHES THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SRN GA.  OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT AND WHETHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A BAND OF PREFRONTAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF MAIN WIND SHIFT FROM
THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO...NEWD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  THIS
ACTIVITY MAY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION LATER IN THE DAY
AS STRONG SPEED MAX DIGS TOWARD SRN GA.  AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS TO WARRANT AN ORGANIZED
RISK OF SEVERE.  HOWEVER...CURRENT LOW PROBABILITY FORECAST MAY NEED
TO BE UPGRADED IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN INDEED RETURN
INTO THE SERN U.S. PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

..DARROW.. 01/29/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM