[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 271736
SWODY2
SPC AC 271734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2006

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW
MKO 25 WSW TUL ICT 10 ESE SLN 30 N MHK 10 S FNB 35 NNE MKC 15 SSW
SZL 20 W SGF 15 ENE FYV 20 WNW FSM 20 SSW MKO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N
PSX 45 ESE AUS 35 NW CLL 35 SE CRS 30 N LFK 45 ESE LFK 25 W BPT LBX
35 N PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE CRP 50 S ALI
20 SE LRD 40 W COT 35 WNW HDO 30 S BWD 30 E SPS 35 SW END 30 SSE DDC
55 NNE GCK 25 ENE MCK 10 WNW OFK 35 S MCW 25 WNW RFD 25 E VPZ 35 W
CMH 30 WSW UNI 10 NE JKL 20 SE CSV 25 NNE RMG 10 SW ATL 40 ESE CSG
30 W TLH 50 SW AAF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW GPI 35 NNE 3DU
20 E DLN 35 ENE SUN 60 NNW OWY 35 N REO 30 S PDT 45 SE EPH 40 NE EPH
40 SSW OMK 20 N YKM 30 SSE DLS 35 WNW RDM 55 SE EUG 30 W MFR 30 W
4BK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX...

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...
AN UPPER-TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WRN US WILL
DRIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD
ACROSS EAST TX...ERN OK INTO ERN KS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S F IN EAST TX/LA WITH 50S F
EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD LIMIT SFC HEATING OVER MO...AR AND LA WITH A
LARGE CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DURING THE DAY...IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER AND
SFC HEATING WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR A SEVERE THREAT AS THE ACTIVITY
DRIFTS EWD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS EAST TX...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS EAST TX AROUND MIDDAY ON
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET DRIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONGLY
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND/OR WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN KS/NE OK...SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING SHOULD
TAKE PLACE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A DRY SLOT FORECAST TO PUNCH NEWD
ACROSS NRN OK AND SE KS DURING THE DAY. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER
ENVIRONMENT IN ERN KS AND NE OK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE DISCRETE
STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE APPEARS NARROW WITH
ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 01/27/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM