[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 270611
SWODY2
SPC AC 270611

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2006

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE 63S 25 ESE 3TH
30 WSW BTM 20 W MQM 15 NW SUN 15 W BOI 10 SE EUG 65 WSW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE BRO LRD 20 SSE
DRT 55 W JCT 25 NE ABI 30 WNW SPS 35 NE CSM 25 SE DDC HLC 20 S BBW
30 S ONL 25 W SUX 35 S MCW 25 WNW RFD 25 E VPZ 35 W CMH 30 WSW UNI
10 NE JKL 20 SE CSV 25 NNE RMG 10 SW ATL 40 ESE CSG 30 W TLH 50 SW
AAF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MS VALLEY/SERN TX...

HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 60-120M...WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
REGION SATURDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL AID WARM ADVECTION REGIME
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO MO WHERE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION.  DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW
TO RETURN ACROSS A NARROW MODIFIED WARM SECTOR FROM THE ARKLATEX
INTO SWRN MO IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY.  IT DOES APPEAR HOWEVER
THAT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...SFC-3KM IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM...AHEAD OF
MAIN UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SFC-BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER
OF 500J/KG THAT SHOULD ENHANCE BOUNDARY LAYER THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...BUT SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY
WINDS.

FARTHER SOUTH...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL WEAKEN IN THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS ACROSS SERN TX AS LLJ SHIFTS WELL INLAND AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH.  WEAKENING CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
OFFSET STEEPER LAPSE RATE/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT LIMITING TSTM
COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION.  ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT
LIVED AND POSE LITTLE MORE THAN A THREAT FOR SOME HAIL. DIURNAL
COOLING WILL REDUCE OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT AND
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

...PACIFIC NW...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING WILL
ENHANCE WEAK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM WA/ORE...INLAND TOWARD THE
NRN ROCKIES.  COLD PROFILES/MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE
HOWEVER.

..DARROW.. 01/27/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM