[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 260545
SWODY2
SPC AC 260544

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST WED JAN 25 2006

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N UIL 15 SW PDX 35
NE 4BK 30 W ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE ELP 25 S HOB
15 NNW LBB 50 SW GAG 30 NE GAG 35 NNE ICT 40 SW OJC 35 WSW SZL 40 NE
SGF 35 NNE HRO 35 S HRO 15 ESE DEQ 35 SSW TYR 45 SSE CLL 50 SE PSX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LESS AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A NUMBER OF PACIFIC TROUGHS MOVE INLAND ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AND THEN TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL LEAD TO LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS...AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
INCREASINGLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS
THIS REGION...COUPLED WITH A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREADING
EAST WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS FROM
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

INCREASINGLY INTENSE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST. DESPITE
LIMITED INSTABILITY...STRONG DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING COULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED COASTAL TSTMS FROM ORE TO WA.

...TX/OK...
MIXED SIGNALS CONTINUE AMONG LATEST MODELS WITH REGARD TO DEGREE OF
MOISTURE AND DESTABILIZATION DEVELOPING ACROSS TX AND OK THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE AIDED
THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS SLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
WAVE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SLOWLY ACROSS SERN/SRN TX THROUGH TODAY AND LOW TO MID 50S
DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY OVER SCNTRL TX BY FRIDAY MORNING.

BY LATE FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A
NARROW AXIS OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE - 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND
8C - ARCING NWWD THEN NWD FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLOPED ASCENT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.
MEANWHILE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS...ASSOCIATED
WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WILL CONTRIBUTE MUCAPE IN THE RANGE OF
150-300 J/KG - POSSIBLY HIGHER IF NAM/BMJ FORECASTS VERIFY -.
RESULTANT INSTABILITY SHOULD FUEL ELEVATED STORMS ROOTED ABOVE THE
850MB LEVEL WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE
PRODUCTION OF HAIL.

..CARBIN.. 01/26/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM