[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 251710
SWODY2
SPC AC 251709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST WED JAN 25 2006

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER DYNAMIC THROUGH
PERIOD AS RIDGE NOW OVER WRN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS EWD ACROSS MS
VALLEY...AND HEIGHTS FALL OVER MOST OF WRN CONUS IN ADVANCE OF
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING NOW OFFSHORE.  LATTER PROCESS HAS BEGUN TO
CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD EJECTION OF PREVIOUSLY CUT-OFF LOW...ACROSS LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY.  THROUGH DAY-2...THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRANSITION TO
DEAMPLIFYING OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD FROM 4-CORNERS
AREA TO MN.  BROAD CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE WILL DOMINATE LOW LEVEL
PATTERN OVER GULF AND MOST OF ERN CONUS...PREVENTING ROBUST MOISTURE
RETURN THAT OTHERWISE MIGHT SUPPORT TSTMS WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM.

VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER...
1. PORTIONS UT/WRN CO EARLY IN PERIOD -- BENEATH COLD CORE REGION OF
TROUGH -- AND
2. LATE IN PERIOD NEAR RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SW TX...WHERE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTENING MAY RENDER ELEVATED
MUCAPES LESS THAN 250 J/KG.
HOWEVER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DO NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR GEN
TSTM THREAT IN EITHER CASE.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS NWRN GULF.  THIS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH JUXTAPOSED REGIME
OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC...AND WEAK DPVA AHEAD OF
LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS IN SUBTROPICAL JET EJECTING NEWD FROM
CENTRAL MEX.  HOWEVER ANY SUCH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE.

..EDWARDS.. 01/25/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM