[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 261731
SWODY2
SPC AC 261730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE
1130 AM CST THU JAN 26 2006

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW UIL 30 ESE CLM
25 W DLS 60 SW RDM 30 NNW MHS 55 W UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW 6R6 55 W SJT 10
ENE FSI 40 ENE BVO 20 NW SGF 15 W FLP 10 E TXK 30 WNW UTS 20 SE VCT
50 ESE CRP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LESS AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A NUMBER OF PACIFIC TROUGHS MOVE INLAND ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AND THEN TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL LEAD TO LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS...AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
INCREASINGLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS
THIS REGION...COUPLED WITH A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREADING
EAST WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

INCREASINGLY INTENSE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST. DESPITE
LIMITED INSTABILITY...STRONG DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING COULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED COASTAL TSTMS FROM NORTHERN CA TO WA.

...TX/OK...

LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE AIDED THROUGH THE DAY 1
PERIOD AS SLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER WAVE EJECTING NEWD
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLOWLY
ACROSS SERN/SRN TX THROUGH TODAY AND LOW TO MID 50S DEW POINTS ARE
LIKELY OVER SCNTRL TX BY FRIDAY MORNING. BY LATE FRIDAY...LARGE
SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE - 850MB DEW POINTS AROUND 8C - ARCING NWWD INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS THEN NORTHWARD INTO OK. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES. MEANWHILE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS
MAY FUEL ELEVATED STORMS ROOTED ABOVE THE 850MB LEVEL WHERE
FAVORABLE SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION
OF HAIL.

..AFWA.. 01/26/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.