[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 220558
SWODY2
SPC AC 220557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2006

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW HUM 25 SW PIB
40 SSE MSL 30 SSE TYS 30 SSW RIC 45 SSE WAL ...CONT... 40 E JAX 40
SW CTY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL TREND TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME BY MONDAY AS A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS OVER NRN BAJA...AND A BELT
OF STRONG NWLY FLOW SPREADS SEWD FROM CNTRL CANADA TO UPPER MIDWEST.
PRIOR TO THIS PATTERN CHANGE...A PAIR OF RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS...ONE MOVING FROM TX TO THE MS VALLEY...AND THE OTHER
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WILL MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH MERGER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT.

DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF POLAR JET WAS CURRENTLY
SITUATED FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO NEWD ACROSS THE MS DELTA TO
THE CAROLINAS. ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS ZONE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE FLOW AMPLIFIES AND
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NEWD ACROSS FRONT. BY MONDAY
MORNING...A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE PRIMARY LOW
NEAR DELMARVA...WSWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...AND THEN SSWWD TO THE
NCNTRL GULF. STRONGLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EAST FROM
THE MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SURFACE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH IN TURN WILL DRIVE THE BOUNDARY EWD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND OVER ALL BUT CNTRL AND SRN FL...BY EARLY TUESDAY.

...WRN FL PANHANDLE TO ERN NC...
POCKETS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH FORCED ASCENT ON THE
ADVANCING FRONT...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN
THIS CORRIDOR. FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ACTIVITY
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM ERN GA TO ERN NC WHERE
STRONG FRONTAL SURGE WILL COINCIDE WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR MODEST
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER FORCING AND INSTABILITY.

..CARBIN.. 01/22/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM