[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 221714
SWODY2
SPC AC 221713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW HUM 25 SW PIB
40 SSE MSL 30 SSE TYS 30 SSW RIC 45 SSE WAL ...CONT... 40 E JAX 40
SW CTY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PATTERN CHANGE WITH SPLIT FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF
LOW FORMS OVER SRN CA/NRN BAJA.  STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES TOWARD THE OH VALLEY CARVING OUT A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A
COASTAL LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DELMARVA AREA BY 12Z
MONDAY WILL LIKELY MOVE QUICKLY NEWD TO THE S OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC WATERS S OF NOVA SCOTIA.  TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO INITIALLY EXTEND WSWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO NRN GA
AND THEN MORE SSWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EWD
MONDAY AS A RESULT OF A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE BENEATH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW.

...MS DELTA/WRN FL PANHANDLE TO THE CAROLINAS...
MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY...ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.  THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING
ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD END LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE CAROLINAS/GA.

..PETERS.. 01/22/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM