[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 211724
SWODY2
SPC AC 211723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2006

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE CRP 25 W COT
45 SW JCT SJT 40 ENE ABI 15 NW PRX 45 E LIT 30 E PAH 30 ENE SDF 30
NNE JKL 20 NNW HSS 15 W GSP 15 ENE AGS 20 E VDI 25 NNW AYS 20 E TLH
35 SW AAF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NAM HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AS TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE NV/UT/AZ TROUGH AS IT REACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE
START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS MAINLY OK/NRN TX TO THE MID MS/LOWER
OH VALLEYS AS THIS FEATURE BECOMES ABSORBED BY A NRN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKING SEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD. 
MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SUB-TROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRACK NEWD
ACROSS THE WRN GULF/TX COAST TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST/LOWER MS
VALLEY AND NRN GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM OFF THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST WSWWD ACROSS SRN GA TO THE MS DELTA AND THEN TO AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN NW OF CRP.  AS THIS
LOW TRACKS NEWD TOWARD SRN LA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AN INVERTED TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE AND EXTEND NEWD TO THE OH VALLEY.

...PARTS OF E TX/MUCH OF LA/SW MS...
BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA IS EXPECTED TO BE
UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL
AND EAST TX TO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS TROUGH. AS A RESULT...LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK...
GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THE
INFLUX OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S SHOULD PROVE
BENEFICIAL FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SURFACE LOW COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL TROUGHS MAY PROVE TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/TSTMS ACROSS E TX INTO LA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING.  OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.

..PETERS.. 01/21/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM