[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 210549
SWODY2
SPC AC 210548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE CRP 25 W COT
45 SW JCT SJT 40 ENE ABI 15 NW PRX 65 WSW MEM 30 SSE MKL 30 SW CSV
35 SE TYS 15 W GSP 15 ENE AGS 20 E VDI 25 NNW AYS 20 E TLH 35 SW
AAF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE WILL RACE ACROSS THE ERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE TRACKING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES BY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS CYCLONE WILL
EXTEND WWD FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE SLOPED ASCENT BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET WAS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE
FRONT FROM SERN TX TO NWRN LA. THIS PROCESS SHOULD BE FURTHER
ENHANCED AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM AZ/NM
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED BY A HIGHER AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. RESULTING
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE AN EXPANDING SWATH OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM SERN TX
TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

...MS DELTA REGION...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE TRANSPORTED INLAND
ACROSS SRN LA/MS AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS BRIEFLY
WITHIN SHARPENING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM
IMPULSE. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SERN LA AND SRN MS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD
OVERCOME MID LEVEL CAPPING AND PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTMS...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG. GREATER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY 1) FORECAST OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND 2) WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS STRONGER MASS TRANSPORT BECOMES
FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.

..CARBIN.. 01/21/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM