[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 201718
SWODY2
SPC AC 201717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2006

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S 7R4 30 S MEI 10
WNW LGC 45 NNW AGS 15 S RWI 65 ESE ECG ...CONT... 35 ENE SGJ 50 SW
CTY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
DAY 2 PERIOD.  NRN STREAM SYSTEM...NOW LOCATED OVER SRN CANADA/ND...
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS REGION BY THE START OF DAY 2.  THIS PHASED TROUGH WILL TRACK
QUICKLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE NERN
STATES...WHILE THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ALONG THE
WA/OR COAST INTO BC...SPREADS ESEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL
TRACK QUICKLY ACROSS THE NERN STATES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY
2...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO DELMARVA. 
MEANWHILE...THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SRN ATLANTIC
STATES.

12Z NAM REMAINS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE SRN STREAM TROUGH...NOW
LOCATED ALONG THE CA COAST...COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET AS THIS
FEATURE APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. 
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF ANY UPPER FORCING AND MODELS DIFFERING IN
THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...THE CHANCE FOR
TSTMS OVER TX REMAINS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK.

...SOUTHEAST TO NRN GULF COAST...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET
ACCOMPANYING LEAD TROUGH AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG/N OF COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SEWD.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THIS POTENTIAL.

..PETERS.. 01/20/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM