[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 200556
SWODY2
SPC AC 200555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW HUM 40 NNW MOB
15 SSE CSG 20 W CAE 40 W ILM 55 SSW HSE ...CONT... 25 NE DAB 35 WNW
SRQ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVE TILT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. A LOW AMPLITUDE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE NEWD FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IMPULSE WILL THEN EJECT
NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING
THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AND ALIGNED WITH THE SRN
EDGE OF FASTER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD INTO THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO...BY SUNDAY MORNING.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SRN STREAM TROUGH TO AID RETURN
FLOW AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS PARTS OF TX BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS
IT APPROACHES TX BY EARLY SUNDAY. NAM SUGGESTS A LOWER AMPLITUDE AND
WEAKER MID LEVEL WAVE. GIVEN UNCERTAIN STRENGTH OF THIS SRN STREAM
IMPULSE...AND LATE ARRIVAL OF POTENTIAL FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR
TSTMS OVER TX APPEARS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

...SOUTHEAST TO NRN GULF COAST...
WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH MOVING
WELL NORTH OF THIS REGION THROUGH THE DAY...LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CIRCULATION/WIND SHIFT AND WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE THE
PRIMARY COMPONENTS AIDING POTENTIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN
GENERALLY MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND EXPECTED WEAK FORCING...ANY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AND POSE LITTLE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER.

..CARBIN.. 01/20/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM