[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 191726
SWODY2
SPC AC 191725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST THU JAN 19 2006

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE GLS 35 N HOU 30
SSW TYR 25 E MLC 15 E JLN COU 15 ENE DEC 25 SSW LAF 30 E IND 40 NW
LEX 35 E BWG 55 SSW BNA 20 SE MSL 25 W BHM 30 N GZH 30 N PNS 40 S
PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AND
DRIFT EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS EAST TX INTO LA...AR AND MO. SFC
DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF LA...AR
AND PARTS OF SRN MO RESULTING IN SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS
COMBINED WITH ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE STORMS ACROSS SCNTRL MO BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS MO WHERE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER THAN AREAS FARTHER
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...A WARM LAYER AT 700 MB IN AR AND LA SHOWN ON
NAM/NAMKF AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED THERE. IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING DEEPER THAN
EXPECTED...INCREASED FORCING ACROSS AR WOULD MAKE STORM DEVELOPMENT
MORE CERTAIN. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE THAT FAR SOUTH...A BROAD 80 KT
MID-LEVEL JET ORIENTED FROM WSW TO ENE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 01/19/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM