[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 190618
SWODY2
SPC AC 190617

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CST THU JAN 19 2006

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S GLS 30 WNW LBX
40 SSW CLL 55 SSE CRS 25 NNW TYR 10 NNW DEQ 40 NW RUE 30 NW UNO 40
ENE VIH 30 SSW SPI 20 W CMI 20 SSW LAF 35 S MIE 15 NE SDF 25 SE BWG
40 SW BNA 15 W MSL 40 ENE CBM 10 ENE 0A8 30 NNE GZH 30 N PNS 40 S
PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/SEWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG FLOW EXTENDING NEWD
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE
NWRN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OK AT 20/12Z AND MOVE
NEWD ALONG QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL REACH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO SWRN QUEBEC.  COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WHEN IT IS OVER NWRN AR SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE AREA OF TX.

...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

ETA/NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NEWD AHEAD
OF THE FRONT FROM SERN TX INTO SWRN AR.  THIS MAY BE OVERDONE AS
TROUGH WILL BE VERY POSITIVELY TILTED AND WEAKENING THUS LIMITING
DYNAMIC ASSISTANCE TO ADVANCE THE MOISTURE THAT FAR NEWD. SWLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50 KT WILL EXTEND FROM E CENTRAL TX INTO SERN MO
WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE TOO FAR
NWD FROM THE GULF COAST.  THIS COUPLED WITH WLY BAND OF 80 KT FLOW
AT MID LEVELS WILL POISE SOME VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. 
THUS...LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES OF 0 TO -2 WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT.  THIS MAY BE OCCUR WITH THIN SQUALL LINE WHICH MAY
PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS PARTS
OF AR AND LA.

..MCCARTHY.. 01/19/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM