[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 170619
SWODY2
SPC AC 170618

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE EWN 20 WNW ECG
NHK 25 ENE BWI ABE 35 SSE MSV 25 NE BDR 35 ESE BID.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SEWD AND SWD THRU THE OH AND TN VALLEY INTO THE NERN
GULF OF MEXICO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY HALF OF
THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL LEAVE SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AS WEAK SOMEWHAT BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE WRN U.S.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY ERN U.S. TROUGH WITH A WELL DEFINED
BAROCLINIC ZONE.  SHARPNESS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO LEAD
TO STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES AND SPEED SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

...COASTAL AREAS FROM VA INTO LONG ISLAND...

EXAMINATION OF 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. IN
ADDITION...WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER RUNNING AROUND 5.5-6.0C/KM
...THEY DO ALSO SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE WHERE VALUES GET TO BETWEEN
100 AND 300 J/KG USING MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS.  THUS...SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE PERIOD
AND COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

..MCCARTHY.. 01/17/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM