[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 161738
SWODY2
SPC AC 161737

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SW
HUM 35 E BTR 35 WNW PIB 25 WNW MEI 35 W TCL 20 SW BHM 25 S ANB CSG
10 ENE ABY 35 NNW CTY 15 SSE SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW 7R4 45 NNE GLH
35 S PAH 10 SE EVV 30 N SDF 25 S LUK 30 WNW HTS 10 NNW CRW 40 WSW
EKN 35 ESE MGW 15 WNW HGR 35 S CXY 20 SSW ILG 55 SSE ACY 125 SE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 40 SSE CLM
30 E AST 15 NNW SLE 10 ESE EUG 30 NNE MFR MHS 20 NNE RBL 40 SSW RBL
15 NNW UKI 65 WNW UKI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN
STATES...

...SERN STATES...

SWRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES
TUESDAY...REACHING THE CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. A STRONG
MID LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 120 KT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY AREA SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE
SERN STATES AND OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
JET INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS NEWD DURING THE DAY.

...SERN STATES...

A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER FROM PREVIOUS FRONTAL INTRUSION CURRENTLY
EXISTS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
30S AND 40S. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE OVER THE WRN GULF WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NEWD INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE SERN STATES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. FARTHER
NE TOWARD THE TN VALLEY...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL BE
MORE LIKELY. A POCKET OF COOLER...DRYER AIR FROM NRN GA INTO THE WRN
CAROLINAS WILL LIKELY BE REINFORCED BY AREAS OF PRE-FRONTAL RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION. THIS AREA OF MORE STABLE
AIR MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT MUCAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG AND THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES. CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY SWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY
TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL HELICITIES WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES JUST AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY IF DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...AND
THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SERN STATES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FEED OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. OVERALL
THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

...CAROLINAS AND ERN VA...

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CAROLINAS AND VA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...POOR LAPSE RATES...TIME OF DAY AND THE QUALITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SUGGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LIMITED. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

..DIAL.. 01/16/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM