[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 160613
SWODY2
SPC AC 160612

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE
HUM MSY 50 ESE GWO 35 SW MSL ANB 35 E CSG MGR 50 SSW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW 7R4 BMG MIE FDY
CLE BFD MSV 25 SE ACK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HQM 25 NE ONP
35 SE OTH MHS RBL UKI 65 WNW UKI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS AL...SERN LA...ERN
MS...SWRN GA...FL PANHANDLE...

...SYNOPSIS...
DAY-2 PERIOD WILL FEATURE CONTINUATION OF PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN.  SRN STREAM PERTURBATION -- MOST INTENSE PORTION
OF WHICH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER AZ -- IS FCST
TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN MEX AND SW TX DAY-1 BEFORE FULLY PHASING
WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM PRESENT POSITION OVER NRN
ROCKIES/CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS.  RESULTANT TROUGH THEN WILL 
ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH DAY-2...WITH SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT. 
OPERATIONAL/DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO
REASONABLY STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING STRONG CONFIDENCE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH THIS SCENARIO.

AT SFC...COLD FRONTOGENESIS PROCESS NOW UNDERWAY OVER CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WILL EXPAND AND SWEEP EWD/SEWD. RESULTANT SHARPLY DEFINED
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS MS VALLEY TO NEAR MIT ATLANTIC
COAST AND SERN FL BY END OF PERIOD.

...ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO NRN AL...
LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD
 OVER PORTIONS MS/AL/SERN LA...REF SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR MORE
DETAILS.  DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE...AND AT LEAST MRGL TORNADO POTENTIAL MIGHT DEVELOP OVER
SRN PORTION OUTLOOK AREA NEAR COAST...WHERE POTENTIAL IS LARGEST FOR
SFC-BASED BUOYANCY.  AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD OVER AL/GA AND FL
PANHANDLE DURING DAY...SEVERAL OFFSETTING FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO
MERIT ONLY SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE.  INTENSE FRONTAL FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS
THIS AREA -- PERHAPS WITH SOME CONTINUITY INTO LATE-PERIOD REGIME
DESCRIBED IN NEXT SECTION.  STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS
EXPECTED...WITH MEAN FLOW PARALLEL TO SLIGHTLY EWD OF FRONTAL
ORIENTATION.  HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW AIR MASS SHOULD BE LESS BUOYANT
BOTH WITH EWD AND INLAND EXTENTS...GIVEN RATE OF MARINE MODIFICATION
UNDERWAY ATTM OVER GULF.  ALSO...AS FORCING BAND SHIFTS EWD INTO GA
AND NRN FL...INFLOW LAYER TRAJECTORIES WILL EMANATE FROM RELATIVELY
LOW THETAE AIR MASS OVER FL.

...ERN GA TO DELMARVA/TIDEWATER...
VERY STRONG FRONTAL FORCING IS PROGGED OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
MAY SUPPORT NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER...IN
ENVIRONMENT OF NEUTRALLY TO MARGINALLY BUOYANT INFLOW.
STRONG SLY FLOW COMPONENT IS FCST IN PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. 
THIS INDICATES THAT ANY NEARLY SFC-BASED INFLOW FOR PRIMARY
CONVERGENCE/CONVECTIVE BAND WILL NEED TO EMANATE FROM ATLANTIC
GULF-STREAM TRAJECTORIES...RATHER THAN MORE ROBUSTLY MODIFIED GULF
OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER.  SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AIR MASS
MODIFICATION IS IN SIMILAR STATE ATTM AS OVER WRN GULF 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 20 DEG BELOW OPEN-OCEAN EQUILIBRIUM
VALUES...AND OFFSHORE FLOW STILL OCCURRING UPSTREAM.  RAPID EWD
MOTION OF FRONTAL ZONE COMPARED TO RATE OF FCST AIR MASS RECOVERY
SUGGESTS ONLY NARROW AND LATE-ARRIVING PLUME OF FAVORABLE AIR MAY
DEVELOP...WITH CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ABOUT MUCH INLAND PENETRATION NEAR
SFC.  THEREFORE...WHILE DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT
YET...MARGINAL...CONDITIONAL AND LATE-PERIOD NATURE OF POTENTIAL
PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

...PENINSULAR FL...
SQUALL LINE SHOULD BUILD TO SEVERE LEVELS OVER OPEN ERN GULF...INVOF
LOOP CURRENT...WHERE AIR-SEA HEAT FLUXES OPTIMIZE INFLOW LAYER
THETAE.  BY THE TIME THIS ACTIVITY REACHES LAND...COOLER SHELF
WATERS AND EVEN COOLER NOCTURNAL LAND MASS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. 
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT AND DISTANCE FROM
MID/UPPER TROUGH.  ACCORDINGLY...W COAST AND PERHAPS KEYS MAY BE
PREFERRED CORRIDOR FOR ANY LINGERING SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT IT IS
TOO SOON TO SPLIT ALREADY MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ON THE
MESOSCALE ACROSS PENINSULA.

..EDWARDS.. 01/16/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM