[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 151716
SWODY2
SPC AC 151715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE
CRP ALI COT HDO 50 W TPL 20 SSW DEQ 30 NNE HOT 25 SSE JBR 30 SSW MKL
25 ENE TUP 40 NW MEI 10 NE MCB 10 SSE BTR 50 SSE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 20 W ALM 15
S ROW 50 NW BGS 40 NNW ABI 55 NNW FTW 15 WNW RKR 20 W FLP FAM 25 NNE
SLO 25 WSW IND 25 NW LUK 50 E LUK 30 SW HTS 25 E LOZ 40 W CHA 15 SSW
BHM 50 SW SEM 65 S BVE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS DURING THE
DAY TWO PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING
POSITIVELY-TILTED...FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD
INTO THE CNTRL PART OF THE NATION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS TROUGH ARE VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO UPPER MS VALLEY...AND A MORE INTENSE SRN STREAM FEATURE
WHICH WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER IA WILL
WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES WHILE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.  SEVERAL WEAK
SURFACE LOWS/PERTURBATIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM TX INTO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS
DURING THE PERIOD.

...CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

12Z SOUNDING AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW ONLY A
NARROW...MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS RETURNING NWD ACROSS THE FAR
WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  WHILE
SOME FURTHER MODIFICATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR THE NEXT 24 HRS...IT
APPEARS THAT DEWPOINTS NO HIGHER THAN LOWER 60S WILL REACH THE COAST
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF DIGGING SRN STREAM VORTICITY
MAXIMA SHOULD AID IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE DURING THE DAY
FROM CNTRL/ERN TX NEWD ACROSS NRN LA/AR INTO PERHAPS NRN MS AND WRN
TN.  STORMS OVER TX WILL LIKELY BE SURFACE-BASED OWING TO CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...WITH ACTIVITY
BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED WITH NEWD EXTENT.  WEAK/MODERATE
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY OVER
TX WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH
CO-EXIST.

UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /WITH EMBEDDED
BOWS AND LEWPS/ IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERE THREAT
SPREADING EWD AND SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND FAR SERN TX.

SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST AS FAR NE AS THE
LOWER OH VALLEY WHERE INCREASED MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG
DEVELOPING SWLY 50-60 KTS LLJ WILL SUPPORT SOME AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION.

..MEAD.. 01/15/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM