[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 150538
SWODY2
SPC AC 150537

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST SAT JAN 14 2006

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E
CRP ALI COT SAT AUS TXK BVX JBR MKL MSL 50 S MSL TCL MEI MCB BTR 45
SSW 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE ELP 50 N MRF
6R6 45 SW JCT 55 W TPL FTW RKR HRO STL BMI SBN TOL MFD ZZV HTS CHA
ANB MGM 50 SW PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TX COASTAL PLAIN TO SWRN
TN/NWRN AL...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
CONUS THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING TROUGHS NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN NV/SRN CA AND COASTAL WA/ORE. 
PHASING...AMPLIFICATION AND EWD PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRONOUNCED/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH BY
17/00Z...FROM DAKOTAS...NEB AND KS SSWWD ACROSS TRANS-PECOS REGION
AND N-CENTRAL/NWRN MEX.

ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE FROM LOWER MO VALLEY REGION
GENERALLY ENEWD ACROSS REGION BETWEEN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH
VALLEY.  COLD FRONT SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT SWEEPS EWD AND SEWD FROM
CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS TX...AR AND LOWER MS VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD.

...W GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING COVERAGE OF TSTMS THROUGHOUT
PERIOD...ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND AS FAR NE AS
INDIANA/OH.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS SWATH...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER BASED BUOYANCY
SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR COAST AND AT LEAST SLGTLY FAVORABLE FROM
TX/LA COASTAL PLAIN INTO WRN/NRN MS AND ERN AR.  MAIN CONCERN IS
QUALITY OF RETURN FLOW AIR MASS...GIVEN SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ONLY
INCOMPLETE AIR MASS MODIFICATION OVER OPEN GULF...AND LIMITED
DISTANCE FOR INLAND PENETRATION OF SUCH TRAJECTORIES BEFORE COLD
FROPA.

CURRENT OBS SHOW ONLY 30S-40S F SFC DEW POINTS OVER OPEN WRN GULF IN
WAKE OF RECENT DEEP FRONTAL PENETRATION.  OBSERVED SEA SFC TEMPS
SUPPORT EQUILIBRIUM DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F.  HOWEVER...PRIND
SUCH AIR MASS WILL BE ATTAINED RELATIVELY LATE IN RETURN FLOW CYCLE
AND WILL REMAIN LARGELY OFFSHORE.  EXPECT 50S/LOW 60S F DEW POINTS
MOVING INLAND AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.  BASED ON MODIFIED
ETA/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS THIS IS BARELY ENOUGH TO GENERATE SBCAPE GIVEN
WEAKLY UNSTABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY OVER NEAR-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR.  MEAN FLOW WILL BE ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE
AS WELL...INDICATING STRONG PROBABILITY OF LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE...WHILE RELATIVELY LOW THETAE AND HIGHER CINH FARTHER E
INHIBITS POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM MAIN FORCING
BOUNDARY.  THEREFORE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE KEPT ON LOW SIDE OF
CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK RANGE FOR NOW.

FROM NERN AR/WRN TN NEWD...BUOYANCY WILL BECOME SMALLER AND MORE
ELEVATED...IN REGIME OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR BUT RELATIVELY
STABLE AIR NEAR SFC.  THIS SHOULD KEEP SEVERE THREAT MORE
CONDITIONAL/MRGL THAN FARTHER S...HOWEVER STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS MAY
PENETRATE SHALLOW NEAR-SFC STABLE AIR

..EDWARDS.. 01/15/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM