[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 130554
SWODY2
SPC AC 130554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W SFO UKI RBL NID
DAG RAL CZZ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE EWN 45 E RZZ
RIC DCA BWI ILG 40 ESE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W EYW 35 ENE PBI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
PERIOD. INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA OVER ERN PORTIONS KS/OK TO MIDDLE TX COAST
-- IS FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE CAROLINAS/GA EARLY IN PERIOD AS CLOSED
MIDLEVEL LOW.  ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM 
VA/MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT REGION AT 14/12Z OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY IN PERIOD. STRONG SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP EWD OFF
MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF
PERIOD...AND OFFSHORE SERN FL BEFORE 14/18Z.  MEANWHILE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT OVER NERN PACIFIC FROM
135W-140W...WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CA.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
THOUGH PRECURSORY WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ACROSS TIDEWATER/MID ATLANTIC
STATES SHOULD BE STABLE COMPARED TO BOUNDARY LAYER OVER GULF
STREAM...ELEVATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH STG
WAA REGIME THROUGH ABOUT 14/18Z...AND BEFORE LOW LEVEL FROPA.  PRIND
BUOYANCY WILL BE TOO WEAK NEAR SFC TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT.

...S FL...
VARIOUS MODELS -- BOTH OPERATIONAL/DETERMINISTIC SUITES AND SREF
RUNS -- VARY ON TIMING OF COLD FROPA...BUT CONSENSUS FCST LEAVES
FRONT ACROSS SRN FL FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY IN PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH
PREFRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TSTMS...COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF DIABATIC
HEATING AT SFC AND BY WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH VEERING PREFRONTAL FLOW.  THERFORE ONLY SMALL GEN
THUNDER AREA IS INCLUDED ATTM.

...CENTRAL/SRN CA...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH BROAD PLUME OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SRN CA THROUGH PERIOD...IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROUGH.  GIVEN PROGGED 50-60 KT SWLY
MIDLEVEL JET POSITION SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS AREA DURING DAY...AND
TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC BACKING/ENHANCEMENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN
CENTRAL VALLEY...POTENTIAL FOR SMALL BOWS OR SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY...WITH RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK TO
NONEXISTENT SFC-BASED BUOYANCY LIKELY CHARACTERIZING MUCH OF AIR
MASS UNDER AND JUST BEHIND MAIN PRECIP AREA.  MESOSCALE AND SMALLER
ENHANCEMENTS TO HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR MAY OCCUR...BUT IT
IS TOO SOON TO RESOLVE AND PINPOINT SUCH EFFECTS ON THIS FORECAST
TIME SCALE.

..EDWARDS.. 01/13/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM