[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 131725
SWODY2
SPC AC 131724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE EWN 30 ENE RIC
UNV 40 E BFD 20 ESE ROC ART 25 NE MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW OTH MHS 15 W
AAT REO OWY 10 SE ELY DRA 40 WNW PMD 40 SSW VBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W EYW 35 ENE PBI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NATION THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  SOME DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS
CONCERNING INTERACTION BETWEEN COUPLED SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR JET
STREAK/SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK AND NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR JET IN
THE EAST.  HOWEVER...AMPLIFIED LARGER SCALE TROUGH...AND UPSTREAM
SYSTEM IN THE WEST ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT LEAST SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE.

...EASTERN STATES...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE IS
PROGGED TO ADVANCE OFF MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY/SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
DIMINISH.

FARTHER NORTH...AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM...AND UPSTREAM
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/FRONT...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.  WARMING AND
MOISTENING ABOVE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER/LINGERING CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIR IS PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST VERY WEAK DESTABILIZATION
FROM THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

THOUGH PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN...AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY...SUPPORTED BY BROAD LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH DIVERGENT
UPPER FLOW.  NAM SOUNDINGS WITH THE KAIN-FRITSCH PARAMETERIZATION
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL NAM IN DEVELOPING CAPE IN
THE MID-LEVELS WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH...AND FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHTNING.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...AS LOW-LEVEL COOLING FROM
COMBINED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEMS OVERSPREADS REGION.

...WESTERN U.S...
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD SPREAD EAST/SOUTH OF MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY REGION OF CALIFORNIA EARLY SATURDAY.  THEREAFTER...
SURFACE HEATING OF LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS MID-LEVELS COOL WITH INLAND
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH.  THIS SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE
SOME SMALL OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WHERE SHEAR BENEATH MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP EAST OF
THE SIERRA NEVADA BY EARLY EVENING...WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
UPPER TROUGH.

..KERR.. 01/13/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM