[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 121740
SWODY2
SPC AC 121738

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S
HUM PIB MEI 45 WNW BHM GAD ATL CAE FLO 55 ESE CRE ...CONT... 60 NNE
MLB 40 WNW PIE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 S
7R4 MCB GWO MKL 15 ESE EVV LUK HTS 40 WSW BKW 20 N HKY DAN 35 SW DCA
15 SSE NHK 30 ESE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE MSS 40 ENE BFD
UNV ABE 50 S ISP ...CONT... 45 SSE GLS 10 SW MLU MDH BMI CGX RQB 65
E APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ONP 40 ENE ACV
35 NNE UKI 10 ENE SJC 45 ESE MRY 40 SW VBG.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI ACROSS ERN MS...MUCH OF
AL/GA/SC AND NRN FL....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LWR OH VLY/ERN GULF AND S ATLANTIC COAST
STATES....

INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFICATION WITHIN STRONG MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET
HAS TRANSLATED DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW IS DIGGING IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. 
MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADUALLY PHASING WITH RELATIVELY STRONG
SUBTROPICAL STREAM...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BY 12Z FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AS A MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS/DEEPENS
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...SYSTEM WILL SLOW...BUT
TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. 
LATEST NAM/GFS INDICATE A 100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK DIGGING INTO
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z
SATURDAY.  A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER SYSTEM
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT TRAILING COLD FRONT
SURGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERNS STILL EXIST ABOUT DEPTH OF MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF ARE NOW IN THE MID/UPPER
60S...WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.  WITH FURTHER
MODIFICATION LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW...GIVEN STRENGTH OF
UPPER FORCING...SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR SEVERE THREAT.  AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. 
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BECOME MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL.

...EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION SEEM LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.  BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CAPE MAY BE
CLOSER TO 500 J/KG THAN 1000 J/KG...BUT LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS
BENEATH DIFLUENT AND STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  AS SURFACE WARMS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...RISK
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE...BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO
DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF STATES.  THIS
SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE THROUGH MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS...THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...WITH A
CONTINUING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES FRIDAY
EVENING.

...LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY...
EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TO THE SOUTH PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY...
BUT FORCING/DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE CYCLONE COULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

..KERR.. 01/12/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM