[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 120547
SWODY2
SPC AC 120546

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE
MLB 30 SW SRQ ...CONT... 100 S 7R4 35 ENE JAN 10 ENE BNA 50 ESE BWG
25 W LOZ 35 S JKL 35 N TRI 25 SW BLF 15 NNE PSK 30 E SSU SHD 45 NE
CHO 30 WNW NHK 15 SSE NHK 25 SSW WAL 75 ENE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SE GLS 20 E MEM 25
SE OWB 25 S LUK 10 SE ZZV 15 NE AOO 15 ESE PHL 100 SSE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ONP 40 ENE ACV
35 NNE UKI 10 ENE SJC 45 ESE MRY 40 SW VBG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SERN STATES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE SERN
STATES FRIDAY. THE SREF MEMBERS SHOW LITTLE DISPERSION OF THE
500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN OUT TO 48 HOURS. THE ECMWF IS NOW LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS. BY EARLY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES SWWD THROUGH WRN TN AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SEWD...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
EAST DURING THE DAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

...SERN U.S THROUGH CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC AREAS...

CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE
WRN GULF AND SOUTH TX EXTENDING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NERN GULF.
A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY EAST OF DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE AS
THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
THE ADVECTION OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NEWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND SWRN PARTS OF THE SERN STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN MORE LIMITED FARTHER NE INTO THE
SERN STATES DUE TO LESS TIME AVAILABLE FOR ADVECTION TO OCCUR. LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER SWRN
PARTS OF THE SERN STATES TO 50S FARTHER NE. THE EXPECTED MODEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL DEVELOP BENEATH -17 TO -19 C AT 500 MB
AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY HEATING DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEATING COULD
BE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET.

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF FRONT COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. FORCING ACCOMPANYING FALLING
HEIGHTS AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
AS MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS SEWD INTO BASE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED LINES AS WELL AS SUPERCELLS AS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL 15% SEVERE
PROBABILITY AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER
PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ONCE
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.

..DIAL.. 01/12/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM