[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 111732
SWODY2
SPC AC 111730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST WED JAN 11 2006

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
JAN HEZ MLU ELD 25 WNW PBF 30 NNE LIT 10 S POF 20 E CGI 10 S EVV 10
S BWG 10 NNW TUP 15 NE JAN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE LBX UTS 15 S
CRS 10 S PRX 35 SSE FLP 10 NNE FAM 10 S BMG 25 E LUK 10 S CRW 20 ENE
HSS SEM CEW 40 SW AAF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LWR MS/LWR OH VALLEYS....

AMPLIFICATION WITHIN STRONG POLAR JET ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE
PACIFIC IS ONGOING...AND BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WHERE A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO EVOLVE.  THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED
IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z THURSDAY... BEFORE
CONTINUING TO SHARPEN/DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE/ LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY.  MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL PHASING
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM WILL OCCUR...LEADING TO STRENGTHENING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF STATES BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WHILE STRONG FORCING AND DEVELOPMENT OF FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES ARE FAIRLY
CERTAIN...SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS NOT.  MODIFICATION OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS COMMENCED...BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE
CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.  WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO LOSE
ITS INFLUENCE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND MODELS SUGGEST A
DEEPENING RETURN FLOW MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60F COULD ADVECT INTO MUCH OF EASTERN
TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AS EARLY AS MID DAY THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...
THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH A WARM/DRY MIXED LAYER ADVECTING OFF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/MEXICAN PLATEAU...WHICH WILL PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THUS...WHILE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD EAST TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...STRONG CAP SEEMS
LIKELY TO PRECLUDE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER
PATTERN SHOULD STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO WEAKEN INHIBITION. 
INITIATION SEEMS MOST LIKELY NEAR PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY...POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 13/03-06Z...BUT MORE LIKELY
THEREAFTER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE ALONG THIS AXIS...FOR
MOIST PARCELS BASED ABOVE STABLE OR NEUTRAL SURFACE-BASED LAYER...
COULD REACH 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST A RISK FOR
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

..KERR.. 01/11/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM